August 1, 2014

OBAMA POISED TO WIN REELECTION

“D” DAY MINUS ONE: ELECTION 2012

Obama’s rally in Madison, Wisconsin (AP)

 

Today is Monday, November 5, 2012, a day before d-day, election 2012.  It seems like “Hurricane Sandy” came and swiftly swept away Obama’s Republican challenger, Mitt Romney.  Already, Republicans are blaming “Hurricane Sandy” for stopping Romney’s imaginary momentum.  Karl Rove, President George W Bush’s deputy chief of staff and the man who has raised more than $500 million from billionaires to defeat Obama, had this to say, according to the Washington Post, “If you hadn’t had the storm, there would have been more of a chance for the [Mitt] Romney campaign to talk about the deficit, the debt, the economy. There was a stutter in the campaign. When you have attention drawn away to somewhere else, to something else, it is not to his [Romney's] advantage… ‘It’s the October surprise,’ Rove said of Sandy. ‘For once, the October surprise was a real surprise.’”

The blame the “Hurricane Sandy,” was also followed by another top Romney surrogate Haley Barbour when he also cited ‘Sandy’ for what’s happening to Romney, “The hurricane is what broke Romney’s momentum,” Barbour said on CNN’s “State of the Union on Sunday.”

“I don’t think there’s any question about it,” he added. “Any day that the news media is not talking about jobs and the economy, taxes and spending, deficit and debt, ‘ObamaCare’ and energy, is a good day for Barack Obama.”

More than 90% of the polls are now showing upsurge for Obama’s own momentum just at the right time.  It looks like people have finally figured out Romney’s empty promises, with nothing concrete that he has promised to do for the American people.  There are four positive scenarios going on now:

1.  Early voting shows a clear majority of the 27 million people who have already voted are Democrats.  In most of the battleground states, early voting shows Obama up in front and that it would take Romney to win 60 to 53% in most of those states to close the gap, in which case Democrats would just be staying home napping.  This is also forgetting that the Romney campaign made a more concerted effort to get their people to vote early as well.

2.  In yesterday’s New York Times, Nate Silver projects Obama with 307 electoral votes to Romney’s 231 (307.2 v. 230.8) with 86.3% chance of winning reelection to Romney’s 13.7%, which is up considerably from last week.  Silver has been attacked viciously by the right wingnut media for his projections.  But he decided to put his pocket where his mouth is by betting $1000 against Joe Scarborough of “Morning Joe” on MSNBC.  Also, we shouldn’t forget that Silver’s predictions are carried by the world’s paper of record, the New York Times.  Imagine what would happen if his projections don’t come true.

3.  Yesterday, Intrade had Obama winning the election by 64% as against 66% today.  Remember, Intrade betting is with real money.

4.  If the above three don’t put your mind at rest about Barack Obama winning a second-term, well the traditional Ohafia chief’s model of Major League Baseball should offer the icing on the case, where I looked at what happened in 2000, 2004 and 2008 election years.  In 2000 and 2004, years in which George W. Bush won the presidency as a Republican, the American League won the baseball championship; while in 2008, when the National League won, Barack Obama won the presidency.  This year again, the National League has won the championship.  Again, Obama is on his way to winning a second term.

Comments

  1. Maz says:

    Sounds encouraging. But this will be true only if the Republicans did not succeed in their “mago mago”. Does election 2000, Chad debacle mean anything to you? Does 537 votes and supreme court ruling mean anything to you?

    I have been so disappointed how the Democratic Party and by extention, the President let Mitt Romney tout his working beween the isle in MA when he was governor. I have been waiting for somebody to remind him in strong terms to imagine what his abysmal record could have been if the Democrats in MA drew a red line of opposition like the Republican house representatives drew against Obama as eloquently boasted by Rich Malconey. Anybody remember the infamous quote that the Republican party was bent on making sure Obama had only one term? If each time Mitt Romney touted his record and somebody rebutted him citting without the generosity the Dems gave him in MA, he would have had nothing positive to claim as a success strory in goverance.

    Whether Obama looses or wins, the Dems and the president lack heavy punches. Period. The Republicans know how to twist somebody’s record and make him look weak. Remember the number they did on John Kerry, a decorated war veteran? Flip floppong was what they used to rope him to a failure. Hard punching is what the Republicans win with. It was the same hard punching on Obama in the first debate that is giving Mitt Romney and the Republicans the amunition to expect victory on Nov. 6, 2012 election. I am worried about an upset because Al Gore that inherited a surplus lost to George W. Bush on Social Issues in 2000 elections. Imagine that? Yet none has been able to show in vivid terms how Democrats build surpluses and the Republicans lavish them on their rich friends in the name of tax breaks.

    I will buy my drinks tomorrow to celebrate or numb my sorrows on Nov. 7, 2012. I don’t know about you.

    Thanks everyone Good luck!!

Leave a Reply