“D” DAY MINUS ONE: ELECTION 2012
Today is Monday, November 5, 2012, a day before d-day, election 2012. It seems like “Hurricane Sandy” came and swiftly swept away Obama’s Republican challenger, Mitt Romney. Already, Republicans are blaming “Hurricane Sandy” for stopping Romney’s imaginary momentum. Karl Rove, President George W Bush’s deputy chief of staff and the man who has raised more than $500 million from billionaires to defeat Obama, had this to say, according to the Washington Post, “If you hadn’t had the storm, there would have been more of a chance for the [Mitt] Romney campaign to talk about the deficit, the debt, the economy. There was a stutter in the campaign. When you have attention drawn away to somewhere else, to something else, it is not to his [Romney’s] advantage… ‘It’s the October surprise,’ Rove said of Sandy. ‘For once, the October surprise was a real surprise.'”
The blame the “Hurricane Sandy,” was also followed by another top Romney surrogate Haley Barbour when he also cited ‘Sandy’ for what’s happening to Romney, “The hurricane is what broke Romney’s momentum,” Barbour said on CNN’s “State of the Union on Sunday.”
“I don’t think there’s any question about it,” he added. “Any day that the news media is not talking about jobs and the economy, taxes and spending, deficit and debt, ‘ObamaCare’ and energy, is a good day for Barack Obama.”
More than 90% of the polls are now showing upsurge for Obama’s own momentum just at the right time. It looks like people have finally figured out Romney’s empty promises, with nothing concrete that he has promised to do for the American people. There are four positive scenarios going on now:
1. Early voting shows a clear majority of the 27 million people who have already voted are Democrats. In most of the battleground states, early voting shows Obama up in front and that it would take Romney to win 60 to 53% in most of those states to close the gap, in which case Democrats would just be staying home napping. This is also forgetting that the Romney campaign made a more concerted effort to get their people to vote early as well.
2. In yesterday’s New York Times, Nate Silver projects Obama with 307 electoral votes to Romney’s 231 (307.2 v. 230.8) with 86.3% chance of winning reelection to Romney’s 13.7%, which is up considerably from last week. Silver has been attacked viciously by the right wingnut media for his projections. But he decided to put his pocket where his mouth is by betting $1000 against Joe Scarborough of “Morning Joe” on MSNBC. Also, we shouldn’t forget that Silver’s predictions are carried by the world’s paper of record, the New York Times. Imagine what would happen if his projections don’t come true.
3. Yesterday, Intrade had Obama winning the election by 64% as against 66% today. Remember, Intrade betting is with real money.
4. If the above three don’t put your mind at rest about Barack Obama winning a second-term, well the traditional Ohafia chief’s model of Major League Baseball should offer the icing on the case, where I looked at what happened in 2000, 2004 and 2008 election years. In 2000 and 2004, years in which George W. Bush won the presidency as a Republican, the American League won the baseball championship; while in 2008, when the National League won, Barack Obama won the presidency. This year again, the National League has won the championship. Again, Obama is on his way to winning a second term.